Perfiles de transición epidemiológica-nutricional y carga de morbi-mortalidad por COVID-19 en Argentina: un estudio ecológico

Abstract

El objetivo de este trabajo fue identificar perfiles epidemiológico-nutricionales en Argentina, y comparar su carga de morbi-mortalidad por COVID-19. Se condujo un estudio ecológico multigrupal (24 unidades geográficas de Argentina). Se estimó el porcentaje de cambio 2005-2018 de indicadores de transición epidemiológica-nutricional, y sociodemográficos por unidad geográfica. Se condujo un análisis de componentes principales y análisis de clúster jerárquico para identificar agrupamientos geográficos que definan perfiles de transición epidemiológica-nutricional. Por grupo, se calcularon medidas resumen de incidencia acumulada (IA), mortalidad y tasa de letalidad por COVID-19 (semana epidemiológica 50), estableciendo comparaciones mediante prueba t de Student. Se identificaron tres perfiles denominados: (1) reemergencia de enfermedades infecciosas, (2) persistencia de enfermedades cardiovasculares con mejoras sociosanitarias y en estilos de vida, y (3) consolidación de la tríada obesidad-sedentarismo-enfermedades cardiometabólicas. La IA y mortalidad por COVID-19 promedio fue mayor en provincias con perfil 1, en comparación con el perfil 2 (IA: p = 0,0159; mortalidad: p = 0,0187) y el perfil 3 (IA: p = 0,0205). La letalidad resultó mayor en el perfil 3, que aglomera provincias con situación socioeconómica más desfavorable, estimándose diferencias significativas respecto al perfil 2 (p = 0,0307). En conclusión, existen distintos perfiles epidemiológico-nutricionales en Argentina, que tienden a diferenciarse en su situación epidemiológica de COVID-19. Las estrategias contra COVID-19 deberían considerar las características epidemiológico-nutricionales y sociodemográficas de base.

The study aimed to identify epidemiological nutritional profiles in Argentina and to compare the burden of morbimortality from COVID-19. A multigroup ecological study was conducted with 24 geographic units in Argentina. We estimated the percent change from 2005 to 2018 in indicators of the epidemiological-nutritional transition and sociodemographic indicators according to geographic unit. We performed principal components analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis to identify geographic groupings to define profiles in the epidemiological-nutritional transition. By group, we calculated summary measures of COVID-19 cumulative incidence (CI), mortality, and case fatality (epidemiological week 50), establishing comparisons via Student’s t test. Three profiles were identified: (1) reemergence of infectious diseases, (2) persistence of cardiovascular diseases despite social, health, and lifestyle improvements, and (3) consolidation of the triad obesity-sedentarism cardiometabolic diseases. Mean COVID-19 cumulative incidence and mortality were higher in provinces with profile 1 compared to profile 2 (CI: p = 0.0159; mortality: p = 0.0187) and profile 3 (CI: p = 0.0205). Case-fatality was higher in profile 3, which includes provinces with more unfavorable socioeconomic conditions, showing significant differences from profile 2 (p=0.0307). In conclusion, there are distinct epidemiological nutritional profiles in Argentina which tend to differ in terms of their COVID-19 epidemiological situation. Strategies to fight COVID-19 should consider the underlying epidemiological, nutritional, and sociodemographic characteristics.

The study aimed to identify epidemiological nutritional profiles in Argentina and to compare the burden of morbimortality from COVID-19. A multigroup ecological study was conducted with 24 geographic units in Argentina. We estimated the percent change from 2005 to 2018 in indicators of the epidemiological-nutritional transition and sociodemographic indicators according to geographic unit. We performed principal components analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis to identify geographic groupings to define profiles in the epidemiological-nutritional transition. By group, we calculated summary measures of COVID-19 cumulative incidence (CI), mortality, and case fatality (epidemiological week 50), establishing comparisons via Student’s t test. Three profiles were identified: (1) reemergence of infectious diseases, (2) persistence of cardiovascular diseases despite social, health, and lifestyle improvements, and (3) consolidation of the triad obesity-sedentarism cardiometabolic diseases. Mean COVID-19 cumulative incidence and mortality were higher in provinces with profile 1 compared to profile 2 (CI: p = 0.0159; mortality: p = 0.0187) and profile 3 (CI: p = 0.0205). Case-fatality was higher in profile 3, which includes provinces with more unfavorable socioeconomic conditions, showing significant differences from profile 2 (p=0.0307). In conclusion, there are distinct epidemiological nutritional profiles in Argentina which tend to differ in terms of their COVID-19 epidemiological situation. Strategies to fight COVID-19 should consider the underlying epidemiological, nutritional, and sociodemographic characteristics.