Comprehensive Risk Mapping for Heatwave-Sensitive Chronic Diseases Mortality in Argentina

Abstract

Background: Climate change poses increasing risks to human health, with heat waves (HW) being a notable concern. This study pioneers the mapping of mortality risks associated with heat-sensitive Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) in Argentina, considering the simultaneous influence of HW and multiple underlying vulnerability factors. Methods: The study integrates data from the National Statistical System, climate reanalysis, and remote sensing products by following the methodology outlined by the Climate Change Risk Mapping System of Argentina. Various vulnerability dimensions, including sociodemographic, environmental, pre-existing chronic conditions, and lifestyle-related factors were analyzed to provide spatially resolved risk assessments. To assess adherence between the risk map and mortality from a heat-related NCD, a random-intercept mixed effects model was fitted. Findings: Between 2006 and 2010, heatwaves (HW) in Argentina displayed varied patterns in both intensity and extent. The vulnerability analyses reveal distinctive spatial patterns, with a notable broad diagonal from southwest to northeast. Maps indicate lower mortality risks in coastal and high-altitude areas of the northwest, with higher risks concentrated in the center-north of the country. Moreover, a positive association (RR 1·68; p<0·001) was found between age-standardized mortality rates from cardiovascular diseases and the overall risk estimates posed by HW. Interpretation: The resulting risk map, developed through a protocolized methodology, underscores the intricate connections among contextual conditions, lifestyle attributes, and health outcomes. The study contributes empirical evidence to the understanding of the relationship between NCDs and HW.