Business cycles synchronization among Argentina, Brazil and their main EU trading partners
Abstract
In this paper, we apply the Hodrick and Prescott filter to explore whether the economic fluctuations of Argentina, Brazil andtheir main European Union (EU) trading partners followed a similar pattern for the period 1995.1–2018.4. When both SouthAmerican economies are analyzed together, the highest coincidence is observed in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fluctuations(almost 75% of the observations lie on the same side of the zero line). However, as to the rest of GDP components, a drop isobserved in the coincidences (the observations are close to 50%). While Argentinian GDP, private consumption and imports havea significant correlation with their Brazilian counterparts, this association is rather modest. As to their main EU partners, tradeintegration is likely to lead to a higher business cycles synchronization for Argentina, but it is not for Brazil.
URI
https://publicaciones.ucuenca.edu.ec/ojs/index.php/REP/article/view/3196http://hdl.handle.net/11086/550444